Launchbay Newsletter 18.02.2025
Newsletter
17 February

Grok 3 Takes the Lead—But for How Long?

Grok 3 just claimed the #1 spot on the LLM Arena Leaderboard, where AI models are ranked through blind user comparisons. It became the first model to surpass 1,400 points, knocking Gemini 2 Flash Thinking from the top.
Even AI heavyweight Andrej Karpathy—ex-Tesla AI lead and a highly respected figure—shared his first impressions:
“Grok 3 + Thinking feels somewhere around the state-of-the-art territory of OpenAI’s strongest models (o1-pro, $200/month) and slightly better than DeepSeek-R1 and Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking… The fact that xAI went from scratch to this level in about a year is unprecedented.”
Beyond raw performance, Grok 3 introduces DeepSearch, a tool similar to OpenAI and Perplexity’s Deep Research. It aims to break down complex queries, search online sources, and synthesize reports. The big question? Whether these AI research tools remain differentiated or quickly become a commodity.
But Grok 3’s time at the top may be short-lived. GPT-4.5, Anthropic’s hybrid reasoning model, Meta’s Llama 4, and Google’s next-gen AI are all on the way. And of course, GPT-5 looms on the horizon.
Ultimately, success depends on two critical factors:
1️⃣ Pace of innovation—Can xAI outpace other frontier labs?
2️⃣ Distribution strategy—Is Twitter/X enough?
Which brings us to Musk’s latest move…

Musk’s X Eyes $44B Valuation Amid Secondary Market Resurgence

Bloomberg reports that X is in talks for new equity funding at a valuation of at least $44 billion—matching the price Musk paid for the platform.
Just a year ago, many saw Twitter as a massive financial misstep. Fidelity repeatedly slashed its valuation to a fraction of the buyout price, reflecting plummeting ad revenues.
Now, however, advertisers are trickling back, and Fidelity recently marked up its stake. While X remains controversial, Musk may yet pull off a turnaround—just in time for xAI’s upcoming primary round.
xAI is in talks to raise $10 billion at a $75 billion valuation, according to Bloomberg. Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz and Valor Equity Partners, three firms that are already existing investors in the maker of the Grok chatbot, are in the discussions.

Anthropic’s Revenue Projections: $34.5B by 2027?

Anthropic is setting ambitious financial targets, projecting revenue could soar to $34.5 billion by 2027, according to The Information. Even in a more conservative "base case" scenario, the company expects to hit $12 billion in revenue by 2027, up from an estimated $2.2 billion in 2025.
While Anthropic is still in heavy investment mode, it’s making progress toward sustainability. The company expects to burn $3 billion in 2025, a significant improvement from $5.6 billion burned last year. By 2027, management believes Anthropic will reach cash flow breakeven—a rare feat in the AI sector, where most players continue to rely on external funding.

Anduril Poised to Take Over Microsoft’s $22B U.S. Army Headset Deal

Anduril Industries is set to take control of Microsoft’s massive $22 billion augmented reality headset program for the U.S. Army, pending approval from the Department of Defense.
If finalized, Anduril will be responsible for production, hardware and software development, and managing delivery timelines for the Army’s Integrated Visual Augmentation System (IVAS) program. This move marks a significant shift in the defense tech landscape, as Anduril continues to expand its influence in military AI and battlefield technology.

J.P. Morgan Payments Expands BNPL Offerings Through Klarna Partnership

J.P. Morgan Payments is teaming up with Klarna to expand its buy now, pay later (BNPL) services, enabling 900,000 businesses to offer Klarna’s installment payment options to customers, Bloomberg reports.
The partnership integrates Klarna into the world’s largest merchant acquirer, which processes $2 trillion in payments annually. It also strengthens Klarna’s U.S. presence as the company prepares for a potential public listing this year.
“We’ve evolved into a third-party network, similar to Amex and PayPal,” said Klarna CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski. “As a bank, this is a natural progression, especially as competition in retail banking intensifies.”
Klarna, based in Sweden, has bolstered its distribution network by adding Stripe, Adyen, and Worldpay, following the sale of its checkout business in 2023. The company is also exploring a U.S. banking license, which Siemiatkowski says would allow Klarna to enhance customer experience and offer more comprehensive services.

Databricks and SAP Partner to Expand Data Integration for Enterprises

Databricks has struck a new partnership with SAP, allowing the German software giant to resell Databricks' database software to its corporate customers.
A key highlight of the deal is that, for the first time, Databricks’ database will seamlessly integrate with SAP application data, unlocking new analytics and AI-driven insights for enterprise users.

Turo Shelves IPO Plans Amid Slowing Growth

Turo has officially withdrawn its IPO plans, likely opting to focus on improving financial performance before revisiting public markets.

Key Financials:

Revenue: $958M in 2024, up 9% from $880M in 2023.
Net Profit: ~$26M in 2024.
Gross Margin: 46% in 2024, down from 51% in 2023.
Growth & Market Trends:
Turo’s growth has slowed from its post-COVID peak.
Rising customer acquisition costs (CAC) and operational expenses are putting pressure on margins.
The trend of companies delaying IPOs until stronger financials emerge continues.

Meanwhile, crypto exchange Gemini, backed by the Winklevoss twins, is exploring a potential IPO as soon as this year, according to sources.
For real-time IPO insights, including financial data, growth trends, and upcoming liquidity events, check out our IPO Barometer.

Primary Markets Heat Up: Big Raises Across AI, Robotics, and Fintech

The primary funding market is buzzing with major deals across AI, robotics, fintech, and defense tech, as investors double down on high-growth sectors.

Consumer & Fintech

Olipop raised $50M at a massive $1.85B valuation, up from just $200M in 2022. JPMorgan Growth Equity Partners led the round.
Rapyd, the London-based fintech API company, is in talks of securing $300M in a late-stage VC round at a $3.5B valuation.

AI & Quantum Computing

EnCharge AI closed an oversubscribed $100M Series B to advance in-memory computing—a potential game-changer for on-device AI processing outside data centers.
Lambda, a Launchbay Capital portfolio company, raised a $480M Series D to build a hyperscaler cloud for AI developers. The round was co-led by Andra Capital and SGW, with participation from NVIDIA, Andrej Karpathy, ARK Invest, Fincadia Advisors, G Squared, In-Q-Tel (IQT), KHK & Partners, and others.
QuEra, a quantum computing startup, raised $230M, backed by SoftBank and Google.

Legal Tech & AI Assistants

Harvey, the AI-powered legal assistant, raised a $300M Series D at a $3B valuation, led by Sequoia Capital with backing from OpenAI Startup Fund, Coatue, and LexisNexis.
Eudia, another legal tech startup, raised $105M Series A, with $30M up front and $75M earmarked for acquisitions under General Catalyst’s roll-up strategy.

Robotics & Autonomous Tech

Apptronik raised $350M to scale humanoid robots for real-world industrial applications.
Saronic Technologies, focused on autonomous shipbuilding, raised $600M Series C at a $4B valuation. The funds will support its Port Alpha shipyard and hybrid fleet development for the U.S. Navy.
With major raises across AI infrastructure, robotics, and fintech, investors are making bold bets on the next wave of tech disruption.

# Popular Secondaries # Popular Secondaries
Publications
5 March
IPO Barometer
26 February
Launchbay Newsletter 27.02.2025
11 February
Launchbay Newsletter 12.02.2025
4 February
Launchbay Newsletter 5.02.2025
27 January
Launchbay Newsletter 28.01.2025