Launchbay Newsletter 1.05.2025
Newsletter
30 April

From Search to Shopping: Google's AI Evolution Meets OpenAI's Retail Ambitions

We're starting with news about the AI-based transformation of the search market. In other words, Google’s market.
Google's global search market share dipped below 90% in the final quarter of 2024 for the first time since 2015, according to Statcounter. This decline suggests users are increasingly exploring AI chatbots and alternative search tools, particularly in Asia.
Google has faced criticism for a lack of vision in evolving its search features. Executives have grappled with balancing innovation and business impact, cautious that rolling out AI Overviews too rapidly could cannibalize Search ad revenue and incur higher operational costs.​
However, in its Q1 2025 earnings, Google shared some positive figures about its AI initiatives. Search revenue grew 10% year-over-year to $50.7 billion, a deceleration compared to the 14% increase in Q1 2024.
Google attributes this growth to AI Overviews, which provide AI-generated summaries at the top of search results. These now reach over 1.5 billion users monthly, covering more than 140 countries and 15+ languages. Considering that Google Search has approximately 2 billion monthly active users, AI Overviews now serve about 75% of the total Search user base. While Google hasn't disclosed specific methodologies for counting these users, it's likely that the 1.5 billion figure refers to unique users who encounter AI Overviews in their search results at least once per month.​ For comparison, ChatGPT’s MAU is approximately 600 million.
The question is how sustainable Google’s success is.
Last week, during the Google Search antitrust trial, Google executive Sissie Hsiao addressed concerns about AI features potentially cannibalizing commercial queries. She noted that, so far, there hasn't been evidence of AI chatbots diverting users from commercial searches. However, the situation remains fluid, and much depends on whether AI chatbots become more effective at assisting consumers with purchases.
This brings us to OpenAI's advancements in shopping use cases, which we'll explore next.
OpenAI is enhancing ChatGPT with new shopping features aimed at providing a more personalized and conversational shopping experience. These updates allow users to receive product recommendations complete with images, prices, star ratings, and direct purchase links. Importantly, these results are organic and not influenced by paid advertisements, as OpenAI is not currently monetizing these features through ads or affiliate links.​
The product suggestions are based on a variety of online sources, including traditional publishers and user forums like Reddit. Users can also specify their preferences, allowing ChatGPT to prioritize certain types of reviews or product attributes. While ChatGPT facilitates the discovery and comparison of products, purchases are completed on the retailers' websites.
In parallel, Mastercard has introduced Agent Pay, a set of tools designed to enable AI agents to handle card payments and make purchases on behalf of users. Agent Pay utilizes tokenized payments technology, which anonymizes sensitive information like credit card numbers, ensuring secure transactions. This initiative aims to provide a trusted and seamless payment experience within AI-driven platforms.​

Scale AI missed its revenue and profit targets

Scale AI fell short of its own targets. The company had told investors early last year it expected to exceed $1 billion in revenue in 2024, yet it delivered around $870 million, even though its year-end run-rate hit $1.5 billion. Scale now projects $2 billion in revenue for 2025. Despite earlier promises to break even, Scale reported a –$150 million EBITDA loss last year.
Now, in discussions for a $25 billion tender offer, Scale trades at just 17× its end-of-2024 ARR. As Alex Wilhelm of Cautious Optimism points out, “That feels very inexpensive given … 160% growth off a nine-figure base—surely worth more than a spiritless 17× ARR ratio.”
To gauge that multiple, let’s compare Scale’s implied valuation to other private AI firms in the $5–50 billion range, across applications and infrastructure (using Q1 2025 ARR and April 2025 valuations):
Scale’s 17× sits modestly within this spectrum—relatively cheap among application-layer AI players but pricier than many infrastructure specialists.
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Scale’s 17× sits modestly within this spectrum—relatively cheap among application-layer AI players but pricier than many infrastructure specialists.

Revolut’s Blockbuster Year: Massive Profit Gains and Wild Valuation Upswing

Revolut’s growth streak shows no signs of slowing. In its latest results, the company reported £1.1 billion in pre-tax profits for 2024, a 149% increase from the prior year, and added 15 million new customers, bringing its total user base to 52.5 million. Over the same period, revenue jumped 72% to £3.1 billion.
On the valuation front, Revolut’s secondary-market share price on platforms like Launchbay implies a $39 billion valuation, up 133% year-over-year.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX Emerges as Frontrunner for Trump’s “Golden Dome” Missile Shield

SpaceX is leading the bid to develop President Trump’s proposed “Golden Dome” missile-defense system. The company is reportedly partnering with Palantir for advanced data analysis and Anduril for defense‐system integration to build the core interception technologies—akin to Israel’s Iron Dome—that would detect, track, and neutralize incoming missile threats.

xAI Holdings in Talks for $20 Billion Fundraise to Shore Up X’s Debt

Following the merger of Musk’s xAI startup with social-media platform X into xAI Holdings, the combined company is negotiating a $20 billion financing round at a valuation of about $120 billion. Proceeds from this mega-round would likely be used to reduce the significant debt X (formerly Twitter) accrued during Musk’s leveraged buyout three years ago.

Recent Funding Highlights in Cybersecurity, Wealth Tech, and AI Response

Chainguard secured $356 million in a Series D round to advance its supply-chain and container-security tools for software developers.
The fintech platform Altruist raised $152 million in a Series F, valuing the company at nearly $2 billion.
Dataminr obtained $100 million through convertible notes to further enhance its real-time AI alerts for corporations, government agencies, and first responders.

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